Forecast Scenario of the Market Development

Current Situation

The current prices on residential property offers in Moscow and Moscow Region (yellow line on the diagram) exceed the price level by 30-35 % based on the key macroeconomic indicators (the so-called “effective price” – blue line on the diagram). Within the past six months the offer prices have been going down (at the average monthly rate of 2-4 %) reaching the support line.

Price Decrease Phase

Further decrease in prices will follow the linear or exponential trend. The negative dynamics will remain until the actual prices reach the level of effective prices (approximately – in the fourth quarter of 2009). After this the decrease in prices will stop and may continue only in case of significant worsening of the exterior macroeconomic situation.

Stabilisation and Increase Phase

After the decrease phase is over, the market will stabilize and in case of a positive development of the macroeconomic situation the increase phase will begin. In case of continued stagnation in the economy the increase in prices on the residential property market will equal to zero or have a low grade positive tendency .

Base Macroeconomic Scenario

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Dmitry Khalin

Managing partner

Phone: +7 (495) 775 2240

D.Khalin@intermarksavills.ru

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