| Consulting |
Forecast Methodology (brief comment)Runtime forecast for average price change on the residential property market has been made by the Strategic Consulting Department of IntermarkSavills for :
The forecast is based on an identified functional dependency of the level of retrospective prices on the residential property market on major macroeconomic indicators ( inflation, USD rate, oil prices, average mortgage rates and others ) . Prospective price modelling is based on the assumption that the indicated dependency remains in the future. The used methodology implies application of mathematical, econometric and statistical methods of forecast including :
The benchmark forecast for price dynamics on the residential property market in 2009-2011 (the results of which are published on the site) has been made on the basis of a conservative-optimistic scenario of the development of residential sector economy of the RF . Effective mid-market prices on the residential property market and in its separate segments in 2009-2011 are calculated based on the dynamic model designed by IntermarkSavills . Assuming that the actual (current) price tends to be effective the price dynamics forecast is made on the decrease stage as well as on the following increase stage. Moreover, such approach allows forecasting a bend in the price dynamics (a.k.a. the market “bottom”) The forecast is runtime. IntermarkSavills corrects its results in case of a base macroeconomic scenario change as well as depending on actual price changes in the short- and mid-term. The forecast is confirmed on a monthly basis (the results are published on our web-site). |
 Dmitry Khalin  Quick links
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